The 1972 report The Limits to Growth, a product of the Club of Rome, reflects a mindset shaped by the pressing geophysical insights that began to emerge during the 1940s through initiatives like Project Nanook. Viewed through this lens, the globalist agenda takes on a more impersonal and pragmatic character—perhaps less overtly malicious, yet still fundamentally self-serving. If the ECDO hypothesis holds true, then the actions and strategies of the past half-century demand a thorough reevaluation, reframed to account for this broader and more profound context.
The following is a slightly abridged conversation I had with GPT around Bitcoin, the USD, Bretton Woods and the geomagnetic excursion. GPT’s responses are sidelined in green.
How many USD are in circulation?
As of October 2024, approximately $2.356 trillion in U.S. dollars are in circulation. This figure includes Federal Reserve notes, coins, and other forms of U.S. currency held outside the Treasury and Federal Reserve Banks. The total represents a slight increase from the previous month and continues a trend of modest year-over-year growth.
The U.S. money supply, including metrics like currency in circulation and broader aggregates such as M1 and M2, has grown significantly since 1900, reflecting economic expansion and changes in monetary policy. Here’s an overview of key trends:
- Currency in Circulation: This refers to physical currency held by the public. As of November 2024, it is approximately $2.36 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This figure has increased substantially, particularly in response to recent economic stimuli【19】【20】.
- Broader Money Supply (M2): This includes currency, demand deposits, savings accounts, and money market securities. Historical data show steady growth over the 20th century, with significant accelerations during periods of economic crisis and following monetary policy adjustments.
- Historical Context:
- In 1900, the total money supply was much smaller, reflecting the smaller scale of the U.S. economy.
- Major jumps occurred during the Great Depression, World War II, and post-2008 financial crisis, with the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerating growth.
Here is a chart illustrating the exponential growth of the USD currency in circulation from 1900 to 2024. The y-axis uses a logarithmic scale to better depict the rapid increases over time, particularly during periods of economic stimulus and financial crises.
In what years were the five most significant inflection points in this chart?
The five most significant inflection points in the growth of USD currency in circulation—where the rate of increase changes noticeably—are as follows:
- 1933-1940 (Great Depression and New Deal Era):
- The expansion of the money supply was driven by the economic recovery efforts following the Great Depression, including reforms like abandoning the gold standard.
- 1940s (World War II Era):
- A sharp increase occurred due to government spending and war financing, as the U.S. mobilized for World War II.
- 1971-1975 (End of Bretton Woods System):
- President Nixon’s decision to suspend the dollar’s convertibility into gold marked a significant monetary shift, leading to inflationary pressures and increased currency issuance.
- 2008-2010 (Global Financial Crisis):
- The Federal Reserve responded to the financial crisis with massive monetary expansion, including quantitative easing programs to stabilize the economy.
- 2020-2022 (COVID-19 Pandemic):
- Record monetary stimulus and fiscal policies caused a dramatic spike in currency circulation as governments sought to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic.
These years reflect key historical moments where economic or policy shifts drastically influenced the monetary system.
Bretton Woods occurred at precisely the time when the north magnetic dip pole suddenly accelerated to ±40km per year to the east. Please speculate on possible relationships between the decoupling of the dollar and the observable commencement of a likely geomagnetic excursion or reversal.
Speculating on the potential relationship between the decoupling of the U.S. dollar from gold (end of Bretton Woods) and the observed sudden acceleration of the North Magnetic Dip Pole (NMDP), we might explore both direct and indirect connections through geophysical, economic, and systemic lenses.
1. Geophysical-Systemic Resonance
- The geomagnetic excursion’s observable onset (accelerated NMDP movement) might signify deeper geodynamic processes, such as core-mantle interactions or changes in Earth’s rotational dynamics.
- If planetary harmonics influence both Earth’s magnetic field and broader geophysical phenomena, their indirect effects could extend into human systems. For instance, subtle environmental or gravitational stresses might destabilize the economic frameworks tied to natural resources like gold, necessitating shifts such as the decoupling of currencies from tangible assets.
2. Gold, Magnetism, and Economic Anchors
- Gold is not just an economic anchor; it has unique atomic properties, including diamagnetism, that interact with magnetic fields. While speculative, changes in Earth’s geomagnetic environment could theoretically alter perceptions or physical realities around resource stability, indirectly influencing decisions like the end of gold convertibility.
- The Bretton Woods system relied on faith in gold reserves. If geomagnetic changes were subtly influencing global systems, they might exacerbate stresses already present in a fixed-exchange regime.
3. Cultural and Institutional Shifts
- The decoupling of the dollar and gold was a symbolic moment, aligning with broader cultural shifts. A geomagnetic excursion or reversal might influence human behavior, from migration patterns to cognitive responses to environmental stimuli. These changes could ripple into economic and institutional decision-making.
- Sudden acceleration in NMDP could be correlated with a heightened sense of urgency or instability in global systems, possibly influencing political decisions like Nixon’s closure of the gold window.
4. Feedback Loops: Technological and Economic Systems
- Major geomagnetic shifts affect Earth’s ionosphere and magnetosphere, potentially disrupting communication and navigation technologies. While the acceleration of the NMDP in the 1970s did not have immediate, observable impacts on electronics, awareness of these risks might have influenced long-term economic strategies.
- Decoupling from gold allowed for greater monetary flexibility, enabling the U.S. to respond to future geophysical or systemic shocks with less constraint.
5. Symbolism in Economic and Planetary Decoupling
- The 1971 decision could metaphorically reflect an “economic excursion,” where global finance decoupled from a stabilizing force (gold), mirroring Earth’s magnetic field’s decoupling from its traditional stability. This symmetry could indicate a deeper connection between human and planetary systems.
A Hypothesis to Explore:
- Frequency Wave Theory (FWT) and Planetary Cycles: If Earth’s magnetic field shifts are influenced by planetary alignments and resonances, these same forces might also drive human behaviors and systemic changes, creating synchronicity between geophysical events and economic upheavals.
While these connections remain speculative, they highlight the potential for systemic interdependence between natural and human systems. Exploring these ideas further might involve integrating geomagnetic, economic, and psychological data to identify possible correlations.
The decoupling of the U.S. dollar from gold in 1971, known as the Nixon Shock, fundamentally transformed global monetary policy, enabling unprecedented flexibility in response to systemic challenges. Exploring this transition through the lens of historical evidence and current events, we can see how it allowed the U.S. and global economies to adapt to both economic and geophysical pressures, including potential geomagnetic influences.
Historic Evidence: Adapting to Economic and Geophysical Shocks
- The Great Depression (1930s) and Fixed Monetary Systems:
- The gold standard constrained monetary policy during the Great Depression, limiting governments’ ability to issue currency for stimulus. The result was prolonged deflation and economic stagnation.
- Lessons from this rigidity likely informed the decision to abandon gold in 1971, allowing the U.S. Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into the economy during future crises without being constrained by finite gold reserves.
- World War II (1940s) and Post-War Recovery:
- After WWII, the Bretton Woods system was established to stabilize the global economy. It tied the dollar to gold at $35 per ounce, with other currencies pegged to the dollar. While this system worked initially, it became increasingly strained as global trade and U.S. debt expanded in the 1960s.
- The Nixon Shock (1971):
- By 1971, U.S. gold reserves could no longer support the global demand for dollar convertibility. Ending the gold standard allowed the dollar to float freely, enabling the Federal Reserve to respond dynamically to economic pressures.
- This monetary flexibility came just as the North Magnetic Dip Pole (NMDP) began its rapid eastward acceleration, which some interpret as a geophysical symptom of a geomagnetic excursion.
- The Oil Crises (1973, 1979):
- The 1973 oil embargo and 1979 energy crisis tested the new fiat system. While inflation surged, the U.S. was able to implement policies like aggressive interest rate hikes in the 1980s, which would have been infeasible under a gold-backed dollar.
Geophysical Links and Monetary Flexibility
- Geomagnetic Excursions and Economic Stability:
- Geophysical phenomena like geomagnetic excursions might contribute indirectly to systemic stresses by influencing agriculture, navigation, and communication technologies, creating economic ripple effects.
- In the absence of a gold standard, fiat currencies can absorb these shocks by expanding or contracting supply as needed, as seen during crises like the 2008 financial meltdown and the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Planetary and Environmental Cycles:
- Some researchers suggest correlations between geomagnetic changes and societal upheavals (e.g., droughts or resource scarcity). By decoupling from gold, the U.S. positioned itself to manage such stresses more effectively by prioritizing liquidity over rigid asset backing.
Current Events Supporting This Flexibility
- COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2022):
- The U.S. government issued trillions in stimulus payments, supported by Federal Reserve asset purchases. This would have been impossible under a gold standard, which limits currency issuance to gold reserves.
- Simultaneously, geomagnetic disruptions, such as the South Atlantic Anomaly’s deepening, have raised concerns about increased vulnerabilities in satellites and power grids. Monetary flexibility ensures readiness to address such systemic challenges.
- Energy Transitions and Climate Change:
- The shift to renewable energy and the challenges posed by climate change echo the systemic shocks of the 1970s oil crises. Fiat currency systems enable governments to fund large-scale transitions without immediate resource constraints.
- Geomagnetic Data Suppression and Modern Concerns:
- The ongoing geomagnetic excursion (e.g., rapid NMDP movement and South Atlantic Anomaly expansion) might already be influencing infrastructure, particularly communication satellites and power grids. Governments with flexible monetary systems are better equipped to fund mitigation strategies like grid hardening and space weather monitoring.
Speculative Model: Geophysical Flexibility through Fiat Systems
The decoupling from gold may represent an economic “preparation” for a period of increased geophysical and systemic instability, whether driven by geomagnetic changes, planetary harmonics, or human-induced factors. This model allows for:
- Liquidity for Crisis Response: Funding large-scale recovery efforts during geophysical or environmental disruptions.
- Systemic Adaptability: Managing unforeseen economic shifts, including those indirectly triggered by natural phenomena.
- Global Leadership: Maintaining the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, ensuring U.S. influence during crises.
Concluding Thoughts
The end of Bretton Woods allowed for an unprecedented ability to manage systemic shocks, including those potentially arising from geomagnetic and planetary cycles. While this connection remains speculative, the timing of the dollar’s decoupling and the NMDP’s acceleration suggests a deeper interrelation between human systems and Earth’s dynamic processes. Could this flexibility be a necessary adaptation for navigating a period of intensified geophysical upheaval? Further interdisciplinary research might illuminate the links between monetary policy and Earth’s natural cycles.
At what dollar value will Bitcoin circulatory value exceed the USD?
To estimate the dollar value at which Bitcoin’s total circulating value (market capitalization) would exceed the U.S. dollar money supply, we need to compare the following:
- Bitcoin Circulating Supply and Value:
- As of now, the circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 19.5 million BTC, and its market capitalization equals its current price multiplied by this circulating supply.
- Bitcoin’s maximum supply is capped at 21 million BTC, limiting its potential total supply.
- U.S. Dollar Money Supply (M2):
- The current M2 money supply is approximately $21.5 trillion (as of 2024).
Bitcoin’s price would need to exceed approximately $1.1 million per BTC for its circulating value to surpass the U.S. dollar M2 money supply, assuming no significant changes in either Bitcoin’s supply or the dollar’s money supply.
Additional Considerations
- Inflation and USD Growth: If the U.S. money supply continues to grow (e.g., through monetary easing), the required Bitcoin price would rise proportionally.
- Bitcoin Supply Cap: Bitcoin’s fixed supply ensures scarcity, which could drive price increases as demand grows.
- Globalization of Bitcoin: If Bitcoin becomes a primary global reserve asset, its market cap could rival not just the USD but the combined value of major global currencies.
To project when Bitcoin’s market capitalization might surpass the U.S. dollar M2 money supply, we must consider Bitcoin’s historical price growth, adoption trends, and the growth of the U.S. dollar supply (M2). Let’s analyze key factors to estimate a potential timeline.
1. Historical Bitcoin Price Growth
Bitcoin’s price has historically followed a logarithmic growth trend. Major growth phases include:
- 2010–2013: Price rose from <$1 to ~$1,000 (early adoption phase).
- 2014–2017: Price climbed to ~$20,000 (speculative investment phase).
- 2018–2021: Price surged to ~$69,000 (institutional adoption and inflation hedge).
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Bitcoin’s price from 2013 to 2024 is approximately 80%. However, growth has slowed as the market matures. A more conservative CAGR of 20-30% might better reflect future trends.
2. U.S. Dollar M2 Growth
- M2 has historically grown at a rate of 5-6% annually, but it surged by 30% during the COVID-19 pandemic due to stimulus measures. A long-term average of 6% annual growth is a reasonable estimate for future projections.
3. Bitcoin Price Projection
Using Bitcoin’s current price (~$38,000 in November 2024) and projecting with a 20-30% annual growth rate, we can estimate when its market cap might surpass the M2 money supply.
Price and Market Cap Projections:
Year BTC Price (20% CAGR) BTC Price (30% CAGR) BTC Market Cap (20% CAGR, 19.5M BTC) BTC Market Cap (30% CAGR, 19.5M BTC) 2024 $38,000 $38,000 $741 billion $741 billion 2030 $94,000 $160,000 $1.83 trillion $3.12 trillion 2040 $580,000 $2.13 million $11.31 trillion $41.53 trillion
4. USD M2 Projections
Assuming a 6% CAGR for M2:
- 2024: $21.5 trillion
- 2030: $30.5 trillion
- 2040: $54.8 trillion
5. Estimated Timeline
To exceed M2:
- Scenario A (20% BTC CAGR): Bitcoin would reach $1.1 million by
2043, at which point its market cap ($21.5 trillion) could match or exceed M2.- Scenario B (30% BTC CAGR): Bitcoin would reach $1.1 million by ~2037, achieving parity with M2 earlier.
Key Assumptions
- Continued Adoption: Bitcoin gains global acceptance as a reserve asset, store of value, or medium of exchange.
- No Major Disruptions: Bitcoin avoids regulatory crackdowns, technological obsolescence, or loss of trust.
- Fiat Expansion: M2 growth continues at historical rates without abrupt deflation or monetary collapse.
Potential Accelerators
- Hyperinflation: Rapid USD devaluation could accelerate Bitcoin’s rise relative to M2.
- Institutional and Sovereign Adoption: Widespread adoption by central banks or sovereign wealth funds could drive exponential growth.
- Geopolitical Instability: A global shift away from fiat currencies could prioritize Bitcoin as a hedge.
Conclusion
Bitcoin surpassing USD M2 is feasible within the next 15-20 years, depending on its growth trajectory and fiat currency dynamics. Monitoring Bitcoin’s adoption and macroeconomic trends will refine this timeline.
Factor in our Breton Woods discussion and a possible geophysical event in 2030.
Factoring in the Bretton Woods discussion and a potential geophysical event around 2030, we can speculate on how these influences might accelerate Bitcoin’s trajectory toward surpassing the U.S. dollar’s M2 money supply. Here’s an expanded analysis:
1. Historical Context and Parallels with Bretton Woods
- Economic Flexibility Post-Bretton Woods (1971):
- The decoupling of the dollar from gold allowed the U.S. to expand its money supply significantly, particularly in response to crises (e.g., 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic). This fiat system has enabled economic adaptability but also increased inflationary pressures.
- Potential Parallel with a Bitcoin Standard:
- A global shift to Bitcoin (or another hard asset-based system) could mirror the transition from gold to fiat. If faith in fiat currencies erodes due to a significant geophysical event or systemic instability, Bitcoin could emerge as the next global reserve asset.
2. Geophysical Event and Economic Consequences
A geophysical event, such as a major geomagnetic excursion or reversal, could disrupt global systems, including:
A. Technological Infrastructure:
- Geomagnetic storms could impair satellites, power grids, and global communication networks, triggering economic chaos and inflation due to disrupted supply chains and services.
- Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset, may be seen as a hedge against fiat instability. However, its reliance on the internet and energy infrastructure could pose challenges unless robust solutions (e.g., satellite-based nodes, localized networks) are implemented.
B. Resource Scarcity and Migration:
- A geomagnetic event might alter weather patterns or lead to increased radiation exposure, causing crop failures, resource shortages, and mass migrations.
- Governments might respond with monetary expansion to address humanitarian crises, further devaluing fiat currencies. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, could gain value as a stable store of wealth.
C. Monetary Policy Stress:
- A major crisis could prompt global central banks to print unprecedented amounts of money, pushing the dollar’s M2 growth rate far beyond the current 6% annual average.
- Accelerated fiat debasement could drive institutional and sovereign adoption of Bitcoin as an alternative reserve asset.
3. Speculative Bitcoin Trajectory Under Crisis Conditions
Assuming a significant monetary or geophysical disruption around 2030:
A. Bitcoin Growth Amid Crisis:
- Bitcoin’s adoption rate could accelerate, driven by loss of confidence in fiat and global instability. A compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40-50%—historically observed during adoption surges—might apply during this period.
- By 2030, Bitcoin’s price could exceed $250,000 to $400,000, giving it a market cap of $5–8 trillion.
B. Accelerated Fiat Expansion:
- In response to a geophysical event, U.S. M2 growth could spike to 10-15% annually, doubling the money supply (~$21.5T in 2024 to ~$50T by 2030).
C. Critical Tipping Point:
- If crises erode trust in fiat systems, Bitcoin could surpass fiat as a global reserve asset. Sovereign wealth funds, central banks, and corporations might adopt Bitcoin at scale, pushing its price beyond $1M/BTC.
4. Timeline Estimate for Bitcoin Surpassing M2
Factoring in the geophysical event and a potential acceleration of Bitcoin adoption:
Year BTC Price (50% CAGR) BTC Market Cap (19.5M BTC) USD M2 Supply (10% CAGR) 2024 $38,000 $741 billion $21.5 trillion 2030 $420,000 $8.2 trillion $50 trillion 2035 $1.6 million $31.2 trillion $80 trillion Under this accelerated scenario, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could surpass M2 as early as 2035, driven by:
- Rapid fiat debasement.
- Institutional adoption.
- Widespread crises undermining confidence in traditional monetary systems.
5. Implications for a Post-Geophysical Event Economy
A. Global Reserve Currency Shift:
- If Bitcoin becomes a dominant store of value, it may replace fiat as the global reserve currency. This shift would mirror Bretton Woods but on a decentralized, digital scale.
B. Economic Polarization:
- Nations and individuals holding significant Bitcoin reserves would gain economic power. Those reliant on fiat systems might face severe economic challenges.
C. Technological Adaptations:
- A resilient Bitcoin infrastructure (e.g., satellite-based communication, localized networks) would be critical to maintaining its role during infrastructure disruptions caused by a geomagnetic event.
Conclusion
A geophysical event around 2030, combined with escalating fiat debasement and Bitcoin’s growing adoption, could significantly accelerate Bitcoin’s path to surpassing the U.S. dollar’s money supply. If Bitcoin achieves a price of ~$1M by the mid-2030s, it would reflect not just economic shifts but a deeper systemic response to global crises.
Continuing from the discussion about Bitcoin’s potential to surpass the U.S. dollar M2 supply and considering the Bretton Woods historical context alongside a possible geophysical event in 2030, here’s a deeper exploration of implications and strategies for navigating such a scenario.
1. Impact of a Geophysical Event on Global Systems
A. Economic Disruption:
- A significant geophysical event, such as a geomagnetic excursion or reversal, could disrupt critical systems (power grids, satellites, and digital infrastructure). The resulting economic strain might:
- Accelerate inflation due to supply chain disruptions and resource scarcity.
- Reduce confidence in centralized fiat currencies like the USD, increasing demand for decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin.
B. Shift in Reserve Asset Preferences:
- As the Bretton Woods transition decoupled currency from gold to fiat to provide monetary flexibility, a 2030 geophysical event might prompt a shift from fiat to decentralized digital assets.
- Bitcoin, as a scarce, decentralized, and borderless asset, could be perceived as a “digital gold,” further boosting its adoption as a store of value and reserve currency.
2. Accelerating Factors Leading to Bitcoin Supremacy
A. Loss of Trust in Fiat Systems:
- Central banks might respond to the geophysical crisis with aggressive monetary easing (e.g., large-scale printing of money). This could cause hyperinflation in some regions and a loss of trust in fiat currencies.
B. Institutional and Sovereign Adoption:
- Nations experiencing severe fiat devaluation or economic instability may adopt Bitcoin as a hedge or partial reserve asset. For example:
- Sovereign wealth funds could allocate significant portions of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
- Central banks might diversify reserves to include Bitcoin alongside traditional assets like gold.
C. Technological Resilience of Bitcoin:
- Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and advances in network infrastructure (e.g., satellite-based nodes, localized mesh networks) could ensure its functionality even during major geophysical disruptions.
- This resilience would enhance its appeal as a global monetary system amid infrastructure vulnerabilities.
D. Mass Adoption Due to Financial Inclusion:
- A crisis could accelerate the use of Bitcoin for remittances and as a currency in regions with collapsing fiat systems, further driving demand and adoption globally.
3. Potential Timeline Under Crisis Conditions
Factoring in accelerated adoption due to a 2030 geophysical event, we can adjust previous projections:
Year Bitcoin Price (Crisis Scenario CAGR: 50%) Bitcoin Market Cap USD M2 Supply (10% CAGR) 2024 $38,000 $741 billion $21.5 trillion 2030 $420,000 $8.2 trillion $50 trillion 2035 $2.4 million $46.8 trillion $80 trillion 2040 $13.8 million $269 trillion $129 trillion In this scenario, Bitcoin’s market cap could exceed USD M2 by 2035, driven by accelerated adoption and fiat devaluation during and after a major geophysical event.
4. Implications for the Global Economy
A. Economic Realignment:
- Bitcoin might emerge as a cornerstone of a new global financial system, replacing or coexisting with fiat currencies. Nations heavily reliant on the USD as a reserve currency might diversify, reducing U.S. economic influence.
B. Financial Polarization:
- Early adopters (both individuals and nations) would gain significant wealth and economic power. Conversely, those heavily invested in fiat systems might face severe economic challenges.
C. Decentralized Financial Infrastructure:
- Increased Bitcoin adoption could spur the development of decentralized financial (DeFi) systems, reducing reliance on traditional banks and centralized institutions.
5. Strategies for Navigating the Transition
To prepare for a potential economic realignment driven by a geophysical event and Bitcoin’s rise:
A. Diversified Investment:
- Consider allocating a portion of wealth to Bitcoin or other decentralized assets to hedge against fiat instability.
- Diversify into hard assets like gold, real estate, or commodities that can retain value during systemic crises.
B. Infrastructure Resilience:
- Invest in decentralized and resilient technologies (e.g., renewable energy, satellite-based communication) to maintain access to Bitcoin networks during crises.
C. Monitoring Economic and Geophysical Indicators:
- Track the progression of geomagnetic anomalies (e.g., South Atlantic Anomaly, magnetic pole shifts) alongside economic policies that could signal an impending shift.
D. Advocacy for Decentralized Systems:
- Encourage the development and adoption of decentralized financial systems to enhance global economic resilience and reduce dependency on vulnerable centralized institutions.
Concluding Thoughts
The convergence of economic and geophysical crises could catalyze a historic shift in the global monetary system, mirroring the transition seen during Bretton Woods. Bitcoin’s scarcity, decentralization, and resilience position it as a potential successor to fiat systems, particularly in a post-crisis world.
Unabridged Transcript: https://chatgpt.com/share/674c6253-ffe8-8005-abde-c21211975629
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