Musica Universalis

2. The Pulse of the Solar System

For the inhabitants of Planet Earth two of these barycentric systems are of overwhelming importance. First is the Sun with its planetary system playing the dynamic role of satellites, in a way analogous to a highly asymmetric twin star, both waltzing around its barycenter which maintains a steady trajectory around the galaxy (Fairbridge & Sanders, 1987). And the second is the “twin-planet,” our Earth-Moon Pair, unique in the solar system for its unusual mass ratio, 80:1.

Inasmuch as Jupiter and Saturn possess 86% of the system’s angular momentum, their conjunctions, which occur about every 20 yr (SJL, the Saturn-Jupiter Lap: 19.859+/-0.82 yr), constitute the fundamental “Pulse of the Solar System” (Fairbridge & Sanders, 1987; independently confirmed by Jakubcova and Pick, 1987; Charvatova, 1990).

Further input into the system is provided by the Uranus-Saturn Lap (USL, 45.368 yr), the Neptune-Uranus Lap (NUL, 171.43 yr), the double synod (USL/SJL, every 317.7 yr). These synods occur within 1-2 yr, but at different longitudes), and many other combinations take place. The periods of the synodic pairs (“laps”) constitute beat frequencies of their revolution periods which may be calculated by a simple formulation:

BF = Po x Pi (Po – Pi)1
(where P = planetary period
o = outer, i = inner planet

The sunspot triggering force on the solar surface has long been controversial. Inasmuch as the Sun is a spinning body as well as having an inertial orbit, a weak torque should be applied by the planets at their synods (Landscheidt, 1988). The principal gravitational potential (certainly a weak one) is shared between Jupiter, Earth and Venus (JPV Lap = 5.550 yr). Wolff & Hickey (1987) attribute the solar irradiance variation to inertial oscillations which develop beat frequencies. Spectral analyses of sunspot number variance disclose corresponding periods (Currie, 1973; Cole, 1973). These periodicities are found also in solar flare frequencies. Very high energy solar flare activity has considerable variance but the mean period is 13.34 yr (Landscheidt, 1988).

The mean sunspot cycle is about 11.12 yr, but it varies in length appreciably (+/- 6 yr from mean to maximum) and systematically over the course of a 178.71 yr cycle (Fairbridge & Hameed, 1983). In general, the shorter the sunspot cycle, the higher the numbers and conversely, a fact discussed already by Clough (1905). Schwentek and Elling (1984) calculated a set of periodicities based on the ratios of the distances from the Sun of the major planets, which would force comparable stress cycles on the photosphere, and would necessarily vary over long periods. A distinctly bimodal development is found in solar cycle length, mentioned above but the familiar 11.12-yr period also appears in spectra and may not be merely an average (Wilson, 1987).

3. The Earth-Moon Pair

In the case of the “twin planet”, the Earth-Moon Pair, the fundamental period is the so-called 28-day lunar month (27.3216 days), which also represents the geodynamic “pulse” for many terrestrial physical and biotic systems, just as the 20-yr period does for the Sun. The Earth’s spin axis turns gyroscopically about a cone in space with a primary period of 25,730 yr leading to a counter-clockwise precession of the equinox. More important perhaps in human terms is the nutation of that axis (by about 9 seconds of arc) in 18.613 yr, which reflects the nodal regression (a clockwise gyroscopic motion) and declination period of the lunar orbit. Both phenomena and its role have been known since the time of Meton about 450 BC.

In the Moon’s motions there exist a very large number of components, but the important ones combine at a period of 744.5 yr (so-called “Gabriel Period”, after its discoverer). It provides us with an important link with the drift period of the Jupiter-Saturn Resonance position (18 x 744.5, or 720 x 18.613 = 2680 yr). The fundamental Lunar-Planetary Beat Frequency is 297.8 yr (16 x 18.613 and 15 x 19.86 yr). It relates commensurably with all the major Planet-Sun+Earth-Moon periodicities; thus, in simple ratios, if 1 = 297.8 yr, 3 = 893 yr, 9 = 2680 yr, 45 = 13,401 yr. It is clear therefore that the Earth-Moon motions are precisely integrated into those of the Sun and the other planets.

The most powerful luni-solar resonance is generated by the SJL and the Earth’s nutation; thus 15 x 19.86, or 16 x 18.613 = 297.8 yr, with the last approximately in-phase epoch between AD 1802.3 and 1801.7. Commensurability of the Chandler Wobble beat frequency provides for extrapolated estimates (48 x 6.2 = 297.8 yr). A simple expansion (9 x 297.8 = 2680 yr) provides a direct link with the drift period of the Jupiter-Saturn Resonance position, which in turn is commensurable with other major planetary periods such as the 178.7 yr cycle (Sun’s orbital symmetry progression: 15 x 178.7 = 2680 yr), and the USL (59 x 45.36).

An “Outer Planet Restart Cycle” recurs at intervals of 4627.15 yr (= 233 x 19.859, or 102 x 45.36, or 27 x 171.39). It is primarily an outer planet relationship but is commensurable with the inner planetary and lunar periods. North and Schlamminger (1979) drew attention to many of these relationships, including paired synods (e.g. Jupiter+Saturn with Uranus+Neptune: 22.46 yr) and even quadruple commensurability (Venus+Earth+Mars+Ceres with Jupiter+Saturn+Uranus+Neptune: 3.75 yr). Very many of the planetary and solar periodicities find a common denominator at 93,418 yr.

4. Geophysical, Geological and Paleoclimatological Links

The most prominent short-term geophysical signals of exogenetic (astronomic) origin are measured in the geomagnetic field moment, only about 50% of the latter being endogenetic. The Earth’s spin rate (conversely the LOD, length-of-day), with parallel fluctuations in the magnetic field shows a seasonal variance commonly ascribed to wind stress and other climatic factors. Sudden jerks in the spin, however, are directly associated chronologically with high-energy solar flare events, also often reflected by magnetic storms (Alldredge, 1984). Many cycles of the 11-22 yr sunspot periodicities have now been traced in the magnetic records since they were first noticed in the middle of the 19th century. Harmonics of the annual variation were calculated by Currie (1974).

As mentioned above, the 18.6-yr nutation period, as well as shorter lunar cycles, are also recognized in the magnetic observations. The coincidence between aurora borealis behavior and the various moon-related periodicities was investigated in Sweden already in the last century (Ekholm & Arrhenius, 1898), showing a clear geomagnetic link. They also discussed parallel climatic events, notably thunderstorm incidence which intrinsically implies some relationship to the atmospheric electrical systems. After 90 years the question is still controversial. In view of the physical linkage between the latter and precipitation it is reasonable to take seriously the proposals by Markson and Muir (1980) and others, as well as many pioneering (and certainly inexpert) correlations which have been subjected to vehement and largely unproductive criticisms by Pittock (1978, 1983). While critical study is essential, it is hardly ethical to condemn without undertaking positive investigative steps.

Studies of upper atmospheric chemistry and aeronomy in general disclose interactions initiated by the two principal variants in solar emissions: the extreme UV flux and the particulate radiation flux. Although the former is tied to the 11-22 yr solar cycles, the latter shows only a very rough correlation with it at mean peak levels, sometimes as much as 4-6 yr after the sunspot maximum. The UV flux provides an external source for ozone generation in the stratosphere, where it behaves as the major “greenhouse gas”, but the level is modulated also by rates of downward dissipation and reaction rates with other gases which in recent decades include anthropogenic pollutants.

Ozone has been measured in the troposphere at high elevations, e.g. Arosa in the Swiss Alps since the 1920’s (Dutsch, 1979; Kane, 1988), and in the stratosphere by rockets since World War II, providing an admittedly spotty record but spanning several solar cycles. Spectral analysis of solar activity show some interesting correspondence with ozone, e.g. a 3.7 yr peak (which is the beat frequency between the combined inner planets and combined outer planets: Wörth & Schlamminger, 1979), a 6.2 yr peak (the Chandler beat), and the 10-11 yr sunspot periods. Ozone also shows the QBO at 2-3 yr intervals (Oltmans & London, 1982).

The lower stratosphere and tropopause also fluctuate in height, not only through the solar cycle, but in connection with the seasonal shift of upper-air wind direction. Coy (1979) showed that above a given site in the west latitudes there is a 6 month (E-W) wind reversal at about 40-70 km elevation but it breaks up around 40 km, and reaching down to around 16 km, it passes into the well-known Quasibiennial Oscillation (QBO) that averages about 2.2 yr. The upper air flow is generally westerly and the lower easterly, but over the course of 12 months or more distinctive tongues of westerlies descend to about 16-20 km, e.g. 1972, 1974, 1976. Schove (1983) has shown that the QBO is present in many terrestrial climate proxies (weather, tree rings, varves, etc.) and is most prominent during the high sunspot maxima intervals; in contrast, during low activity periods the QBO may be replaced by a weak Quastriennial Cycle (QQO). We note that 5 x 2.166 = 10.83 yr (high solar activity mode), and 4 x 3.066 = 12.266 yr the low activity mode. The distribution of QBO/QTO intervals over past centuries can be used as a fine-tuning vernier for establishing identical chronologies in long-distance teleconnections (Schove, 1978; reprinted in 1983). In recent analysis of general circulation models existence has been found of both the QBO (Currie & Hameed, 1988) and of the Southern Oscillation (Sperber et al., 1987).

The problem with contemporary geophysical and geochemical data is that they provide “snap-shot” observations or at best time series which extend only a few decades, so that linkage with the outer planetary motions is excessively difficult, in view of their long periods. As mentioned above, the “Outer Planets Restart” period is 4627 yr, and even an important lunar cycle is 558 yr. One of geology’s fundamental methodological axioms is the Principle of Actualism: we appraise and interpret the past on the basis of physical observations of processes actually occurring at the present time, although acknowledging a corollary to the Fourth Earth Law: the recognition of violent chaotic departures from time to time from the “normal” equilibrium that is then re-established by the various feedback mechanisms.

5. Climatic Proxies

In order to forge a link between 20th century observational geophysics and meteorology, it is necessary to establish “climatic proxies” (Lamb, 1977). Historical proxies are furnished by documentary evidence such as times of freeze-ups, cherry-blossom flowering, harvest statistics, floods and droughts. Geological proxies are provided by any process involving layering or stratigraphy; they fall roughly into two time frames: those less than 10,000 yr (e.g. tree rings, ice accumulations, lake-varve sediments, beach—dunes) and those of greater length (e.g. ice age sediments and morphology, major climatogenic sediment types such as coals, redbeds, evaporites).

Intrinsic in these studies is the establishment of a “normal”, from which departures can be dated and measured. In the long-term framework one of the major discoveries, at least for this writer (Fairbridge, 1973), was that ice ages are unusual events of geologic history. They recur at intervals of perhaps 130-260 million years, which possibly corresponds to the solar system’s passage through the spiral arms of the galaxy. Each major ice age lasts about 10-20 myr and is thus occupying a “spike” representing less than 10% of total geologic time. But even within this 10% glacial cycles alternate at 40,000 to 100,000 yr intervals with interglacials, so that the full glacial intervals (“pleniglacials”) prevail during less than 1% of the earth’s history. There is no change in their frequency through time.

On the short time scales it is observed that there is a latitudinal constraint. At low latitudes equilibrium is maintained by the sea-surface temperature “lid”. As shown by Newell & Hsuing (1984), if the SST exceeds 30°C the evaporation and cloud deck reach optimal limits and further radiation warming is inhibited. Therefore, the only climatic departure from a tropical equilibrium state is a cold spike which can be brief (another Earth-Law principle: biological continuity) because tropical organisms are in general stenothermic and would become extinct if there was a very long cold spell. On land, in the subtropical and tropical savannas, it is an excessively long dry spell or drought spike that represents the life-threatening departure from the normal. These desiccation phases correspond mainly to cold climatic cycles and not to high CO-2 greenhouse-warm cycles.

In contrast, at high latitudes, it is the cold-dry climate that is normal; the abnormal is the warm spike. In our investigations of beachridge storminess events in Arctic Canada and in northern Scandinavia (Lapland) it was discovered, to our surprise, that it was not the cold cycles that were marked by important storms, but the warm ones. In both arctic areas like the Hudson bay and the Gulf of Bothnia are frozen-in for many months, during which there can be no beachridge building. It is during the warm cycles, with more than 6 months of ice-free conditions that (quite infrequent) major storms will build up the largest beachridges (Fairbridge & Hillaire-Marcel, 1977). Referring to long-term lunar tidally related sea-level and ocean-current fluctuations, Pettersson (1930) compared the long-term cycles with a deep-ocean swell, on the crest of which the smaller waves might build up to impressive heights.

In tree ring studies, it is well known that in high latitudes, the summer growth constraint is temperature, not moisture. Thus narrow (light) rings or frost rings mark the high-latitude cold spikes. Up to 20% of these reflect the role of volcanic eruptions in generating dust veils that screen solar radiation and cause cool summers (Filion et al. Payette, 1986). Volcanic events, in contrast, produce little effect in low latitudes. Tree growth in the tropics and subtropics (as in the American Southwest or North Africa) is strongly constrained by moisture, and here the narrow rings reflect droughts (Till, 1988).

63 million death records across 34 years reveal a striking relationship between average lifespan and sunspot numbers at birth: those born in months with SSN≤90 live, on average, 8-10 years (around 11%-15%) longer than those born in months with an SSN>90. Source.

6. Conclusions

1. By consensus, the geomagnetic field is modulated in more or less equal proportions by processes at the core-mantle boundary and by exogenetic agencies, notably the solar wind. Accordingly, any modulation of solar wind should be identifiable in the geomagnetic moment.
2. Long-term variance of solar wind is demonstrated notably by two proxies: documentary evidence of aurora sightings in Europe, the Middle East and China; and cosmic-ray generated C-14 flux rate as determined from tree rings, the rate being inversely related to solar activity which modulates the Earth’s magnetosphere “umbrella”.
3. The planetary “Pulse of the Solar System” is controlled by the combined angular momentum maintained by Saturn and Jupiter (together representing 86% of the planetary total); their beat frequency (or lap rate) is 19.859+/-0.82 yr. Other planetary alignments correlate with other well-known cycles.
4. A roughly 20-yr periodicity is found in innumerable terrestrial climate and geophysical proxies, which imply a role for solar radiation. Linkage between the Saturn-Jupiter Lap and solar behavior is demonstrated by spectral analyses of both sunspot numbers and solar angular momentum. However, the existence of any common relationship is not universally accepted.
5. The further link between solar activity and terrestrial climates is also controversial. Several mechanisms may be involved, for example: (a) radiative UV modulation of stratospheric ozone and the height of the tropopause (fluctuating with the 11-22 yr solar cycles), thence triggering tropospheric disturbances such as the Quasibiennial Oscillation (QBO) which in turn influences to some extent the Southern Oscillation and El Nino phenomena, the Asiatic Monsoon and other global circulation systems (Fairbridge, 1990); (b) particulate radiation, especially the high proton and X-ray flux at high-energy solar flare peaks, seems to play an important role in the region of the magnetic poles affecting atmospheric chemistry and density, triggering high-latitude geomagnetic disturbances.
6. The Earth’s spin rate (or length of day, LOD) is closely related to the geomagnetic field, and/or vice versa. Annual variability is commonly explained by seasonal climatic systems. Solar periods of around 11 and 22 yr are more controversial and may be explained either by a climatic intermediary or by the planetary angular momentum alignment, which is difficult to demonstrate. Longer-term variances in the magnetic field are customarily attributed to core-mantle mechanisms, but exogenetic correlations are not ruled out.
7. The Moon’s 28-day cycle is well established, creating the “Pulse of the Earth-Moon Pair,” but its 18.6-yr nodal or declination cycle is more important for long-term relationships, insofar as it forces the nutation of the Earth’s spin axis. This period is therefore recorded in the geomagnetic moment and aurora sightings, a fact first documented in Sweden, 90 years ago, by Ekholm & Arrhenius (1898). Arguments for a nutation-climate linkage, however, are not universally persuasive: all for in-depth research.
8. The Moon’s gravitational attraction develops diurnal oceanic tides, but also creates a standing wave in the atmosphere which is modulated further by the 18.6 yr period. Precipitation values in Bavaria were first identified as being influenced by this factor in a paper by Georg Schübler (dated 1839). The 18.6 yr period is now recognised worldwide in analyses of precipitation, atmospheric pressure, mean sea level, ocean currents and so on (Currie, 1987).
9. Combined luni-solar tidal attraction develops the maximum potential tide-raising force, which on average is reached 4 yr after the nodal/ declination maximum (not before, as stated in error: Fairbridge & Sanders, 1987, p. 446). This potential is augmented by perihelion-perigee-syzygy alignments, to develop cycles of 4.425, 8.849, 31.008, 62.013,93.012, 111.05, 222.103, 558.12 yr, etc.
10. The fundamental tides are 1.132 yr (the “lunar evection tide”) and 18.030 yr (the “principal perigee-syzygy tide”). The former relates to the Chandler Wobble which in turn develops a beat frequency with the Earth’s annual period, averaging 6.2 yr. This 6.2 yr beat period is represented in numerous climate-related time series, notably precipitation and tree rings. It is approximately one third of the 18.6 yr period and almost in phase with the perihelion-node-apsides cycle every tenth harmonic with a major tidal effect every 62.013 yr. It is thus commensurable with low frequency lunar harmonics, e.g. 93.012, 186.1, etc. The Chandler beat is slightly variable because of the wobble variance but is generally 17-18 months ahead of the corresponding 18.61 yr nutation maximum.
11. A beat frequency of 576.6 yr develops between the 18.61 and 18.03 yr lunar periods (approx. in phase: A.D. 1857.7). It is also an exact multiple of the 6.2 yr (x 93) Chandler Wobble beat and the Solar System’s SJL of 19.86 yr (x 29). Another lunar beat frequency is the 179.3 yr period that is developed by that 18.61 yr and 8.849 yr (apsides) cycles. The two were almost in phase in AD 1987.8, 1801.7, and 1615.6. Perhaps the most striking proxy that this has uncovered is the 500 yr El Nino return frequency: traced over nearly 500 yr, it shows a systematic recurrence with combinations of the four lunar periodicities: 4.45, 6.2, 18.03 and 18.61, and a predictable return at 179 and 186 yr separations (Fairbridge, 1990).
12. Finally there is a luni-solar beat of 297.8 yr composed of the two major periods: 18.61 yr (x 16) and 19.86 yr (x 15). The two were almost in phase in AD 1801.7 (also with the 8.849 yr apsides cycle and (roughly) with the 6.2 yr Chandler beat). Low-frequency harmonics of the 297.8 yr beat are commensurable with major Sun and solar system periods, e.g. 3 x 297.8 = 893 yr (5 x 178.71); 9 x 297.8 = 2680.3 (the “Jupiter-Saturn Resonance Drift” of Worth & Schlamminger, 1979). This intimate commensurability between lunar, terrestrial and planetary-solar periods can hardly be an accidental coincidence but seems to call for a systematic gravitational interrelation- ship. But there are still some VERY BIG unknowns. A veritable gold mine of research offers challenges for the future. As the Danish physicist Niels Bohr observed when someone asked why he nailed a horse-shoe over his door — “Of course I don’t believe it, but some folk say it works.”